Covers Off's IPL Story - Part I: 17K to 4L in 49 games - Every win, loss, league broken down

2023-06-08 09:24:16

Given what Covers Off achieved during the IPL and the learnings and successes we've had in the tournament and in general over the last four months, we could easily publish this as a book. However, a book format for this sort of time-sensitive content may not be the best option right now. So, perhaps sometime in the future.

At the same time, putting everything we want to do in a single article may not be the best option either, as it may easily exceed 4000-5000 words, making it tough to read for the average fantasy player. So we will turn this into a series of articles. Every item will have at least one insight, one tale, and one question. 


First, The Story


Until the end of Game No.24, RCB versus CSK, there was nothing noteworthy about our IPL daily fantasy coverage. For example, you'll note in the advanced breakdown doc that our tracking account was down by 38K. Sure, the account had inconsistencies in terms of not always adhering to our core ideals because it is a tracking account that is always experimenting to uncover the best leagues, routes, and tactics to crack daily fantasy, but it was more or less the same scenario for our subscribers as well. Perhaps less negative or insignificant positive, if anything. 


Covers Off: IPL Match-by-Match Performance Tracker 

Covers Off: IPL Tournament Performance Tracker - Advanced


This isn't something we aren't used to at Covers Off. Normally, because to our comprehensive pre-season study, team, venue, and data packs, we get off to a flying start in almost every tournament we've covered in our history, producing a string of clean sweeps. So much so that at the end of the first third of a tournament, regardless of what happens in the other two-thirds, you can be confident of a positive outcome if you follow the investment strategy we recommend (more on that later in this article). 


But nothing we did in our first four months would have mattered if we hadn't been able to crack the IPL, our biggest competition to date. We had to deliver. 


There was a lot of pressure. The stakes were high. It was past time.


And deliver we did! If you go back and look at the advanced breakdown doc, you'll notice that despite our poor start, the tracking account's tournament profit was 3.6L in 50 games after Game 24. 


Remember how we said in one of our tweets that we did this while only functioning at 75% of our maximum potential? There was a reason behind this. I would go as far as to say we're probably just running at half capacity.



The tracking account could have performed significantly better if this had not been a part experiment project in which I would have to drag myself through the process of becoming a daily fantasy professional player when all of my interests lie in season fantasy and its different forms. Season fantasy appeals to me because its design fosters consistency, it is more cognitively stimulating, and, unlike shares and stock fantasy, it offers the potential for substantial payouts.


For example, here is us taking part in a 50K INR season auction fantasy at Chennai. We ended in second position, bringing home 96K. 



Because I was forcing myself to participate in daily fantasy leagues during the IPL, I was generally only joining leagues after we revealed our final XIs at Covers Off, giving me barely 10-15 minutes to work with. This is one of the key reasons why there aren't many 1390 INR leagues in the doc, which should be your first league if you're investing 10K+ INR in a game. Regular Dream XI players should be aware of how difficult it is to secure a position in the 1390 INR league after 7.10 PM IST in the IPL - that is what everyone is aiming for. And rightly so, as it is one of the few leagues in the app that provides both jackpot potential and a safety net.


We should have gotten at least as much as we did in Game 10 - 4X return on relevant money in and 3X return on jackpot potential money in - for all such top 1-5% performances. But, as you can see, we didn't quite pull it off.


But, moving forward, especially in light of the IPL results and the systems we established to crack daily fantasy in four months, I can now convince myself to consider daily fantasy as an area in which I could try to become a 'pro'. The new-found confidence is a result of our systems not relying on the flawed batter vs bowler metrics, limited sample size batter/bowler at venue analysis, last 5 game returns, or any of the other rubbish that 'number readers' spout as data analysis.


In this scenario, for instance, a fully committed version for example of our tracking account may have produced even better results. However, here, we only followed one of our three recommended philosophies: of not participating in winner-take-all leagues since doing so would be fundamentally wrong. When it comes to entering leagues, we recommend sticking to a 1:4 winner-take-all vs. multiple-winner league ratio. 


You may have noticed that the 1800 or so leagues we've played here have seldom had any winner takes all leagues, which is excessive and a product of my bias, which I'm trying hard to erase from the upcoming tournament so that our tracking account can be at its full potential. 


Next, The Insight


We are frequently asked, "What is the best investment strategy?" Most of our regular subscribers are aware of it, and we have exclusively covered it in our 'Fantasy Masterclass' articles. But, given the volume of subscribers we get every day, we are not shocked that we get the same question over and over again. 


To cut a long story short -


  • Decide on what is your comfortable bankroll. Let's say it is 10K INR for the entire IPL.
  • Your daily investment for a game therefore should be 1000 INR - one-tenth of your overall bankroll. This way, you offer yourself ten equal opportunities to have a proper crack, and given how daily fantasy works, all you need is four good days to be profitable. 
  • Keep putting in 1000 INR game in, regardless of the outcome, until your bankroll reaches 30K INR - 3X your starting tournament bankroll. 
  • When you reach 30K INR, withdraw 10K - one-third of your new account balance. But what about taxes, you ask? Just pay them. You'll have to do it anyway, so do it now. Don't get worked up over little matters. We have far loftier ambitions here. Regular withdrawals will help us attain this. 

The importance of rewarding oneself for small wins through regular withdrawals



It is critical that you reward yourself for your small wins so that your mind realises it is doing something truly fantastic, and in order for that to continue, it must ensure that you receive disciplined suggestions on a daily basis.


When it comes to real money gaming, discipline - both mental and physical - is essential. If you aren't careful, one day where you haven't had enough sleep or rest, or say you are coming in after a difficult day at the office/home, might ruin your profits. And most of us have been there, especially in our early years. Which is why it is critical to have damage control measures in place here, such as not having an extremely high account balance to work with. This way, you may avoid demons taking control and asking you, "Why do you keep playing low ball with only 5K INR every game when you have a total of 50K INR in your account?"


"Go for the kill, invest 15K now, and imagine if you have a good day!" After all, even if you lose, you'll still have 35,000 INR in your account."

Sounds great, right? 


WRONG. Do not fall into the trap. When you are fatigued or having a bad day, you are more prone to make poor decisions, and if you lose, you will beat yourself up for being greedy and begin chasing losses. You'll try to make up for the lost 15K by putting in another 15K, and these kinds of losses almost always happen in streaks, which means your account might be wiped out in no time - one of the key reasons why they say 'The House generally Wins' in real-money gaming.


Being disciplined is the only way to be consistently successful in real-money gaming, because the House you're playing against is often as brilliant as the brightest among us.


Finally, The Question



  • What exactly do we mean by 'relevant money in'? And what is 'jackpot potential money in'? 
  • Does it make sense to keep trying for the jackpot when the net result is a 40K INR loss but the net result for relevant money is 3.7L? 
  • What leagues should a high investor (10K+ INR each game) join? 
  • The story of how one-tenth of our bankroll investment on April 16 turned out to be our final money in and how it has just been money out since then (17K-4L, see columns Relevant Money in and R Min Profit in the IPL Tournament Performance Tracker - Advanced)
  • Why you need to change the way you measure your profits to truly appreciate how well you are doing. 

Answers to these and much more in the next article of the series


Recently Read